Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.039061 0.044605 0.050697 0.057895 0.066176 0.075415 0.086520
2024-12-29 0.031142 0.038768 0.047934 0.059794 0.074780 0.093150 0.117473
2025-01-05 0.025302 0.033366 0.043659 0.057819 0.076892 0.101829 0.137131
2025-01-12 0.021595 0.029837 0.040880 0.056854 0.079527 0.110792 0.157582
2025-01-19 0.018391 0.026433 0.037664 0.054619 0.079789 0.116125 0.173186
2025-01-26 0.017087 0.025467 0.037626 0.056722 0.086282 0.130820 0.203995
2025-02-02 0.015986 0.024628 0.037608 0.058746 0.092746 0.146037 0.237333
2025-02-09 0.015035 0.023879 0.037596 0.060699 0.099208 0.161831 0.273411
2025-02-16 0.013720 0.022398 0.036254 0.060314 0.101741 0.171414 0.300106
2025-02-23 0.012726 0.021323 0.035433 0.060653 0.105446 0.183244 0.331997
2025-03-02 0.011648 0.019992 0.034040 0.059834 0.106986 0.191381 0.358060
2025-03-09 0.011085 0.019484 0.033985 0.061334 0.112785 0.207680 0.401283
2025-03-16 0.010220 0.018381 0.032820 0.060764 0.114823 0.217486 0.433690
2025-03-23 0.009816 0.018073 0.033051 0.062822 0.122095 0.238110 0.490604
2025-03-30 0.008898 0.016722 0.031227 0.060739 0.120998 0.242123 0.513510
2025-04-06 0.008214 0.015749 0.030019 0.059723 0.121899 0.250194 0.546021
2025-04-13 0.007443 0.014537 0.028239 0.057369 0.119763 0.251679 0.564107
2025-04-20 0.007251 0.014451 0.028661 0.059585 0.127519 0.275068 0.635045
2025-04-27 0.007059 0.014345 0.029031 0.061716 0.135315 0.299415 0.711555
2025-05-04 0.006868 0.014224 0.029353 0.063773 0.143160 0.324754 0.793974
2025-05-11 0.006463 0.013616 0.028599 0.063367 0.145320 0.337192 0.845953
2025-05-18 0.006157 0.013193 0.028201 0.063724 0.149298 0.354365 0.912430
2025-05-25 0.005775 0.012571 0.027314 0.062861 0.150254 0.364303 0.961223